Every report here starts with a forecast from Lid, Transparency or Sky Contours, and ends with someone outside checking it. The misses go in the log as well as the hits.
Forecast log
Forecast. Lid 94%, very likely. 1.9° at the ground, 5.5° at 80 m.
What happened. Thick mist at the car park. Above it, a valley full of cloud and a clear sky.
Forecast. Sky Contours: moon in the south, about 7° up. Skyline low toward the moon, about 20° to the west of north.
What happened. Waxing crescent just clear of the ridge. Higher hill to its right.
Forecast. Transparency: Poor, low cloud. Humidity wet, 94%.
What happened. Town lights soft under a low deck of cloud. Reflections on the river diffuse.
Forecast. Lid 56%, Possible (06:54). Transparency: humidity wet, 92%.
What happened. Flat layer of mist on the river, clear sky above it.
One report is an anecdote. The log is here to show the pattern as it builds.
How these are scored
- Hit. The forecast said a lid, or clear air, was likely, and it was there in the forecast window.
- Close. The forecast was unsure, or the timing or strength was off, and something near it happened.
- Miss. The forecast said likely and nothing formed, or it said unlikely and one clearly did.
Forecasts cover a few kilometres, not one street, and a report only describes one place on one morning.